The government’s macro-economic policy unit CPB has completed its analysis of 10 party political programmes ahead of the general election on October 29 and found that almost all plan to make healthcare cuts to help pay for extra spending on defence.
GroenLinks-PvdA, VVD, NSC, D66, BBB, CDA, SGP, CU, Volt and JA21 submitted their plans to the institute for a check on their financial planning. The far-right PVV – likely to be the biggest party in parliament after the vote – has always refused to do so.
The analysis focused partly on the parties’ plans to find €19 billion which the next government will need to fund an increase in Nato defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.
GroenLinks-PvdA, BBB and NSC have only looked at how to fund the €6.3 billion needed up to 2030. JA21 has set a limit of €4 billion in extra spending on defence over the coming four years.
Healthcare
VVD, NSC, D66, CDA, SGP, CU, Volt and JA21 are all against plans to halve the own-risk element in healthcare (currently €385), as proposed by the outgoing government. The VVD, CDA, JA21 and Volt all want to increase it to €440, while the BBB and the GroenLinks-PvdA alliance say they will press ahead with the cut to €170.
VVD, D66, CDA, CU, JA21 and Volt also want to increase the own contributions paid by people requiring long-term care. The VVD, D66, SGP, CU and JA21 want a freeze on adding new treatments to the basic healthcare package, which is determined by the government.
GroenLinks-PvdA is the only party prepared to increase the healthcare budget.
Value added tax
The CDA wants to increase both levels of VAT, currently 9% and 21%, slightly. Volt wants to establish a single VAT rate of 19%, and the SGP wants to cut the rate for the hospitality industry.
JA21 is the only party planning a reduction in the higher rate to 20.5%, which it says will save families €1.4 billion and companies €500 million.
Pensions
The VVD, SGP, JA21 and Volt want to increase the state pension age – Volt by a year and the others by a few months.
Taxes
GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, CU and Volt want to shift taxation from labour to assets, while JA21, VVD and BBB oppose an increase in the asset tax.
The GroenLinks-PvdA plans also include a shake-up of income tax, introducing five different rates. The CDA wants to increase income tax on earnings over €70,000 to 51% from 2030.
GroenLinks-PvdA and Volt introduce a broad wealth tax. Volt also wants to move owner-occupied homes to box 3, where they would be taxed as an asset. Most parties (except VVD, CDA and BBB) also want to lower the income cap for tax-facilitated pension savings.
Mortgage tax relief
GroenLinks-PvdA and D66 want to phase out the tax break on mortgage payments over a 12-year period, CU over 15 years and the CDA over 30. Volt wants to end the tax break within the next cabinet period, meaning within four years.
Spending power
Nearly all manifestos would result in an increase in spending power of around 1% for most households, according to the CPB calculations. The GroenLinks-PvdA plans would boost spending power by 2.3%.
CU, Volt and JA21 are proposing radical overhauls and simplification of the social benefits system, and the VVD is the only party whose policies would lead to an increase in poverty – up to 3.5% in 2030, according to the CPB.
Development aid and immigration
The VVD, BBB and JA21 want to cut the development aid budget even further, and JA21 would almost eliminate it.
The VVD, CDA, BBB, SGP and JA21 all include measures to limit the number of asylum seekers coming to the Netherlands in their plans.
NSC, CDA and SGP want limits on the number of people coming to the Netherlands to work, while NSC, CU and JA21 would restrict knowledge migrants. The VVD, NSC, BBB, CDA and SGP would also limit international student numbers.
Housing
All parties focus on building more homes. The VVD, NSC, D66, CDA, CU and Volt want to do this by extending more subsidies. GroenLinks-PvdA, NSC, D66, CU and Volt want to cut the tax paid by housing corporations so they have more cash to spend on construction.
The SGP, JA21 and BBB plans will not lead to more housing being built, the CPB said. According to the NRC, GroenLinks-PvdA, D66 and CU perform best in terms of housing.
Climate
Most parties focus on a mixture of taxes, subsidies and standardisation, with GroenLinks-PvdA, D66 and CU concentrating on limiting livestock farming. The VVD, D66, CDA and CU also want to allocate more money to voluntary farm buy-out schemes.
GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, CU and Volt lead the list in tackling climate change, while BBB and JA21 policies would result in a weaker climate strategy than the current government’s, the CPB said.
The VVD, NSC, BBB, CDA, SGP and JA21 want to scrap the carbon tax on heavy industry, which the CPB says would increase carbon dioxide emissions.
What it all means
The CPB analysis is based on individual party policies and does not take into account the impact of coalition formation. Nor should it be seen as a voting aid like the Kieswijzer.
In practice, much of what the parties would like to see happen is dropped as coalitions are put together. This means the analysis is more a guide to individual party ideals than to what a future cabinet will actually do in terms of financial strategy.
Check out the CPB analysis (Dutch only)
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